In Q1, the automotive industry started with double-digit growth in both production and sales. What expectations are there for Q2 under the shadow of tariffs? [SMM Special Topic]

up 62.3% MoM and 61.8% YoY. Among them, ternary battery installations reached 10.0 GWh, accounting for 17.7% of total installations, up 55.2% MoM but down 11.6% YoY. LFP battery installations reached 46.6 GWh, accounting for 82.3% of total installations, up 63.9% MoM and 97.0% YoY. From January to March, cumulative power battery installations in China reached 130.2 GWh,

up 52.8% YoY. Among them, cumulative ternary battery installations reached 25.0 GWh, accounting for 19.2% of total installations, down 19.0% YoY. Cumulative LFP battery installations reached 105.2 GWh, accounting for 80.8% of total installations, up 93.6% YoY. Charging Pile Sector

According to the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, as of the end of March 2025, the cumulative ownership of charging infrastructure nationwide reached 13.749 million units, up 47.6% YoY. Among them, public charging piles accounted for 3.9 million units, including 1.785 million DC charging piles and 2.114 million AC charging piles. Vehicle-mounted charging piles accounted for 9.849 million units.

From the end of 2024 to March 2025, a total of 321,000 public charging piles were added nationwide, compared to 183,000 units added in the same period last year, representing a YoY increase of 75.3%. The growth trend in public charging pile construction observed in 2024 continued into Q1 2025. Based on local government plans and policies already introduced,

the incremental volume and growth rate of public charging piles in 2025 are expected to significantly exceed those of 2024. Leap Motor Took the Lead in New Energy Vehicle Deliveries in March, BYD Sales Slightly Exceeded Expectations

According to data compiled by CLS, the performance of several emerging automakers in March is as follows:

As shown in the chart, Leap Motor surged in March, delivering 37,095 units, surpassing Li Auto and XPeng Motors to rank first, up 154.65% YoY. From January to March, Leap Motor delivered a total of 87,552 units, up 162.05% YoY.

Li Auto delivered 36,674 units in March, up 26.53% YoY. From January to March, cumulative deliveries reached 92,864 units, up 15.50% YoY, meeting its Q1 delivery guidance. Li Auto also announced that its L series is expected to reach the milestone of 1 million cumulative deliveries soon. Notably, on the evening of April 26, Li Auto announced that cumulative deliveries of its L6 model exceeded 250,000 units, taking less than 20 days to increase from 240,000 to 250,000 units. As the smallest and most affordable model in the Li Auto family, the L6 has consistently performed well. After its launch in April 2024, the L6 achieved cumulative deliveries of over 100,000 units within five months by September 19, setting a record for the fastest delivery among emerging automakers.

XPeng Motors, after leading the delivery rankings for two consecutive months, was surpassed by Li Auto and Leap Motor in March, delivering 33,205 units, up 267.88% YoY. For five consecutive months, XPeng Motors' monthly deliveries exceeded 30,000 units. From January to March, cumulative deliveries reached 94,008 units, up 330.81% YoY, exceeding the upper limit of its Q1 delivery guidance.

NIO delivered 15,039 units in March, up 26.74% YoY. From January to March, NIO delivered a total of 42,094 units, also meeting its Q1 delivery guidance.

BYD, as the leading domestic EV manufacturer, sold 377,400 NEV units in March, up 17% MoM. Its cumulative sales for the year reached 1.0008 million units, up 59.81% YoY. Citi commented that BYD's March auto sales slightly exceeded market expectations. Citi analyst Jeff Chung stated in a report that BYD's net profit per vehicle in Q1 is expected to exceed 9,000 yuan. After deducting potential provisions of approximately 500 million yuan, the net profit is projected to be at least 8.5 billion yuan, higher than the previous forecast of 8 billion yuan. Total sales in Q2 are expected to range between 1.25 million and 1.35 million units, with net profit per vehicle remaining above 9,000 yuan.

Xiaomi Auto, previously embroiled in public controversy, also released its delivery data on April 1. In March, Xiaomi Auto delivered 29,000 units in a single month. Xiaomi Auto stated that its capacity expansion is progressing smoothly and it is confident in achieving the annual delivery target of 350,000 units.

CAAM commented that since the beginning of this year, China's economy has generally maintained expansion, with both production and demand accelerating. In Q1, a series of policies to boost auto consumption were extended and accelerated, leading to an improved consumer market, frequent product updates, enhanced consumer confidence, and double-digit growth in production and sales. The auto industry started the year on a positive note. Specifically, passenger vehicles continued their strong performance, while the commercial vehicle market showed signs of recovery. NEV production and sales continued to grow rapidly, providing strong support. Vehicle exports maintained steady growth, with NEV exports showing particularly significant growth. Chinese brands continued to rise, maintaining a high share of sales.

Looking ahead to April, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) stated, April 2025 has 22 working days, the same as April last year, which is conducive to stable growth in auto production and sales. The price war in the spring of 2024 led to a severe market downturn from February to March. With the implementation of the 2024 scrappage and renewal policy on April 24, the auto market gradually recovered after April last year, and this April still benefits from a low base effect.

Additionally, the CPCA noted that the five-day "May Day" holiday this year is a great opportunity for road trips, with self-driving tours remaining popular in recent years. The experience of self-driving tours is further enhanced by advanced driver-assistance systems. Recent new products have improved cost-performance by adding features without increasing prices, which will also boost demand for new purchases and replacements among travel consumers.

Due to drastic changes in the external environment and unexpected widespread tariff hikes, consumer sentiment has been somewhat affected. However, the country has long had a policy orientation to promote domestic demand, so the trend of development being driven by both domestic and external demand is becoming increasingly evident. The effect of stabilizing domestic demand in the passenger vehicle market will continue to be seen.

Looking ahead to Q2, CAAM stated that the combined effects of relevant policies will continue to be released. The Shanghai Auto Show will kick off a cycle of intensive new product launches, and promotional activities in various regions are in full swing, which will help further unleash consumption potential and sustain market growth. However, it is also important to recognize that the current external environment is complex and volatile, with increasing operational pressures on enterprises. The industry as a whole still faces significant challenges. It is crucial to thoroughly implement the national strategy to expand domestic demand, closely monitor changes in the external environment, effectively address negative impacts on exports, and support stable industry growth.

Trump's Auto Tariffs "Unpredictable": Latest Developments Seek Ways to Mitigate Tariff Impact?

According to The Wall Street Journal, sources revealed that Trump is expected to take measures to mitigate the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing tariffs on foreign-made cars from being added to other tariffs he has already imposed, and relaxing some tariffs on foreign parts used in cars manufactured in the US. This decision would mean that automakers paying Trump's auto tariffs would not be subject to other tariffs such as those on steel and aluminum (as reported by the Financial Times last week). The Trump administration will also revise tariffs on foreign auto parts—originally set to take effect on May 3 at a rate of 25%. After the adjustment, the maximum rebate in the first year will be 3.75% of the value of domestically produced cars, decreasing to 2.5% in the second year, and then eliminated. This policy is retroactive, and already paid tariffs on steel and aluminum can be refunded.

US automakers said earlier on Monday that they expect Trump to announce auto tariff relief before his visit to Michigan, home to Detroit's Big Three automakers and over 1,000 major auto suppliers. Trump will hold a rally in Michigan to mark his 100th day in office.

It is worth noting that last week, as the deadline for auto parts tariffs approached, six major auto industry organizations representing US auto dealers, suppliers, and nearly all major automakers sent a rare joint letter to the US Treasury Secretary, Commerce Secretary, and US Trade Representative, urging the federal government not to impose additional tariffs on imported auto parts. The letter stated that imposing tariffs on auto parts would disrupt the global auto supply chain, trigger a chain reaction, lead to higher car prices, lower sales, and make auto after-sales service and repairs more expensive and unpredictable.

The White House also confirmed last Wednesday that Trump is considering exempting automakers from some of the harshest tariffs. Additionally, media reports indicated that Trump intends to exempt some tariffs on auto parts, including those on imported steel and aluminum products.